In Pakistan, sales of oil marketing companies (OMCs) for March 2023, in terms of volume offtake was reported at 1.1 million tons, posting a fall by 9%MoM and 39%YoY, with HSD and FO leading the decline (down 43%MoM and 70%YoY).
The said fall (35 month low) is mainly attributable to demand destruction, as POL sales volumes are correlated with an overall economic slowdown.
Overall, analysts expect increased HSD offtakes in the upcoming Kharif sowing season (April June). With fuel prices on the rise, it is expected to be an expensive affair for farmers.
Company wise, major players in the sector, PSO/APL/SHEL/ GOPL, delivered throughput levels of 535,000/113,000/89,000/58,000 tons, taking total market share to 48.4%/10.2%/8.2%/5.3% for March 2023, respectively.
On a forward looking basis, rampant inflationary pressures in the coming quarters alongside a depressed GDP outlook during the year period compels us to assume negative volumetric growth for the industry, by approximately 20-21% for FY23.