Exploration & Production companies in Pakistan experience wild swings

Exploration & Production sector in Pakistan has undergone wild swings this year, with the stock price swayed by developments surrounding Kekra-1 offshore well, selling by foreign institutional and a cloudy oil price outlook driving investors’ sentiments in an increasingly fluid manner. Developments surrounding the GoP’s bid to privatize 7% holding in Oil & Gas Development Company (OGDC) can be held responsible for the recent spell of institutional selling. An analysis of historic shareholding pattern are not as unruly as previously as the top fifteen shareholders have maintained their share ownership in foreign funds mostly absorbing major selling. OGDC is slated to report FY19 profit after tax of Rs113.77 billion (EPS: Rs26.45) marking a rise of 44.5%YoY with 4QFY19 earnings of Rs28.45 billion (EPS: R6.62) an increase of 30%YoY while remaining flat QoQ, on the back of value accretive macro factors and other income growth. OGDC is expected to announce payout of Rs3.0/share, taking full year payout to Rs11.5/share. Citing strong earnings growth, attached with resilient payouts and institutional shareholding remaining intagged, analysts believe these trends bode well for easing investors’ sentiments.

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