When it looked certain that the five permanent members of UN Security Council and Germany were about to arrive at some sort of understanding that may pave way for easing sanctions on Iran, France raised the question which has remained unanswered even by those who have the state-of-the-art technology at their disposal. While some of the critics may be surprised or shocked, I am neither amused nor frustrated.
Being a Pakistani I am perfectly aware of presence of ‘hawks’ on both sides of border that often sabotage negotiations between Pakistan and India. I see the same phenomenon affecting negotiations between Iran and world super powers, five permanent members of UN Security Council and Germany. When the negotiators were close to strike a deal the ‘hawks’ turned the table, on a point that Iran has been rejecting for decades.
The hawks still insist that Iran is busy in making atomic warheads which has been denied repeatedly. The hawks call is not more than a ‘hoax call’ if one looks at the reasons made basis for attacking Iraq, as no weapons of mass destruction were found. In fact Sadam Husain of Iraq could be termed a ‘CIA Operator’, who waged war on Iran for almost a decade. He was fully support by those who were and still not ready to give Iranians the right to live on this planet.
While explaining some of the conspiracy theories being talked about one may require thousands of words, this can be best described by one of the oldest practice of imperialistic culture, “If you can’t kill your enemy, make him your friend but never forget that one day you have to kill him”.
After indulging in a proxy war in Syria for almost two years, spending billions of dollars, getting nearly 100,000 people killed and displacing millions the growing consensus is on arriving at a truce.
It is only a breather and during this period new targets will be identified and new strategies will be prepared. The prime objective of this change of heart is bringing oil prices down in the global markets for some time, to pull the world out of recession, intensified after 2008 financial crisis.
Two countries, namely Israel and Saudi Arabia, seem threatened by any concessions granted to Iran. Israel got the first jolt when the US expressed its dislike over ‘settlement program’. It also feels that creation of a stable independent Palestine may also prompt the US to force it to establish working relationship with the neighbors. In this endeavor the role being played by Turkey is a clear indication of shift in US policy towards Palestinians.
Over the years Saudis have been brainwashed and many of them now openly say, “Iran is a bigger threat as compared to Israel”. While the animosity between Arabs and Iranian is centuries old the most recent conflict is based on keeping Iran out of global oil trade. Most of the Saudi apprehend that if Iran could withstand over three decades of ‘economic sanction’, granting it permission to export oil will undermine the virtual control of Saudi Arabia on oil production and its prices.
The real factor upsetting the Saudis’ is the US decision of not to invade Syria. Over the years Saudis have been made to believe by the US that Iran, Syria and Hezbollah are the biggest threat for Saudi Monarch. The sole purpose of US for creating this mindset helped in selling arms to the countries located in the Arabian Peninsula. The strategy worked and Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates have emerged as the biggest buyers of arms. It is on record that Saudi Arabia bought arms worth US$36 in a year lately. This mad race also provided opportunities to Russia, China and some other countries to sell arms to other countries of the region.
If some of the sanctions are eased, even temporarily and Iran is allowed to export oil, its price in the global market is likely to come down by 25 per cent. While the entire world will benefit from reduction in oil prices, some of the key OPEC and non-OPEC members are bound to witness reduction in petro-dollars, for which they are ready to support anyone and everyone who could widen breach between Iran and the negotiators.
The time has come Muslim Ummah understands this ‘dirty politics’ of west, overcome differences among themselves and focus on welfare of their people rather than accumulating arms. Every ruler must remember that the cause of disintegration of USSR was not the attack on Afghanistan but hunger, even tons of lethal arsenal, including atomic bombs, could not save the country from fragmentation.